Value of Estimating Performance

Earned Value starts with a detailed scope coupled with a planning group proficient in estimating practices, utilizing benchmarking tools, metrics and expert judgment.  

Once the scope has been identified and work orders created decomposition, planning and detailed cost estimating begins. It is the function of the Planning Group to ensure all work orders (deliverables) are planned to meet the level of detail necessary to locate all items and/or asset, identify materials, tools, risks, labor and nonlabor resources to prepare and execute the scope of the work package.

The decomposition of scope broken down to a level of confidence requires training, familiarity with operating environment, organizational process assets and enterprise environmental factors. Too often we seem to underestimate the value of the Planner role and the experience required to understand the functional and context of estimating the elements required to deliver.

The outputs of not planning and estimating effectively impact every aspect of each deliverable from safety, quality to cost and time. The net effect is the deterioration of confidence, inability to identify and manage risks, costs and resource requirements negativity impacting efficiency and productivity.

Most often we us a single point estimate based on expert judgment, sometimes referring to historical data, for activities that may be more challenging, guessing. The shortcomings of the single point estimate factors inspire padding which creates unbelievable schedules and discredits the planning group. Essentially single point estimates are, typically, unreliable. However if it is a Rough Order of Magnitude estimate that is requested the single point or Analogous Estimate may suffice.  The recommendation with this type of appraisal is to supply a range rather than a single number.

Common estimating techniques that provide more reliable values include Parametric and PERT Analysis. The caveat to this is the foundation is built on historical data and statistical relationships respectively.

Parametric estimating calculates projected duration to complete an activity established from a database of historical information. The output is an activity estimate based on time per square foot, time per linear foot or time per cubic foot. For example, we have derived from our database one scaffold crew can build a freestanding tube and clamp type scaffold at a rate of 250 ft3/hr. We can then determine it should take 4 hrs to erect a 10’x10’x10’ scaffold.

PERT estimating can be somewhat more involved when comparing to Analogous and Parametric estimating techniques. The benefit to this type of estimate is the quantification of risk. Subject matter experts understand the environment and condition in which the activities are to be executed. Essentially PERT is a three point estimate based on levels of assumed risk. The planner is required to provide an Optimistic, Pessimistic and Most Likely estimate for each activity. The values of O,M,P are weighted based on risk then averaged to produce the expected duration.

In order provide an accurate scenario for estimating the overall duration of a Turnaround or Project bottom up estimating methodology utilizing subject matter experts with the application of estimating tools will improve schedule management and enable managers to better assess risks. The main output is more control by creating confidence and providing adequate information to which satisfactory decisions are produced.

Utilizing robust systems coupled with subject matter experts Planning, Estimating and Scheduling will enable Turnaround success. Understanding the experience and academic bench mark is a moving target...for more insight view past posts - "Planners - An Industry Challenge" and "Planner Struggle...closing the gap".

Long term benefits, does anyone create a Schedule Managment Plan for their major outages?

Recently I developed a comprehensive Schedule Management Plan for our past major outage. This includes everything from the software, version, linking logic rules to an activity code dictionary. Although the initial framework and development is time consuming the return on investment is almost immediate.

There are both short and long term benefits to the Schedule Management Plan document. The rationale is providing clear concise information regarding operating practices for schedulers to perform there activities with little or no ambiguity. Primarily a reference document for Schedulers, however managers and other stakeholders can also benefit by using as a manual for better understanding key definitions and relationship with in the schedule and/or reports.

Short term this provides a standard for schedulers to proficiently perform there duties while allowing the lead scheduler time to work on more value added initiatives.

Long term value includes a documented archive of the schedule development process and a template for future events. Further, I believe we often forget the "Bus Factor"...what is your lead scheduler retires, wins the LOTO or simply, quits.

Common components include:
  >  Consistent rules regarding schedule development
  > Consistent rules regarding schedule management philosophies
  >  Clearly defined understanding of activity codes - which to use, in what context and what they represent
  >  Straight forward logic regard activity relationship management
  >  Defined reporting structure
  >  Established Layout framework
  >  Established resources and role matrix
  > Clearly defined Activity, Duration and % Complete types
  > Updating expectations - from internal stakeholder groups and contractors
  > Updating expectations -  from software data input perspective  

Please visit the original  post aptly named  " Schedule Management Planning for success" - 24-MAR-11

How does your Management Team define Turnaround Success; are the success factors communicated to all Stakeholders?

Often true Turnaround success is a moving target as each stakeholder group has differing ideas and factors to measure success. Unfortunately, it seems that much emphasis is based on a blending of qualitative feeling and few quantitative results. Without a set of predefined metrics, that are communicated to each stakeholder group we all fail. Too many times both Owner groups and contractors are subjected to ambiguous reviews based on subjective data.

Successful implementation of any Turnaround starts and ends with a common understanding of requirements, metrics and a clear communication process.

Turnaround Safety Management Plan

Safety is an extremely important aspect to every action and work activity we perform in an operating facility. The integration of the Turnaround Safety Management Plan defines the strategy to be utilized by the Turnaround Manager, all Stakeholders as well as resources involved in performing activities during the Turnaround envelop. This plan defines the overall direction the Turnaround is to follow as expressed by the organizations Safe Work Policies & Procedures. The plan aims to make the management of Health, Safety & Environment integral to the planning and execution activities.

Moreover safety management is intended to implement key responsibilities of each and all stakeholders as well as providing a framework to enable authorized Safe Work Strategies
Often a three point type methodology  is implemented during the Turnaround lifecycle based on Management, Monitoring and Auditing.

The management of safety requires:
 > Clear lines of responsibility
 > The setting of priorities and goals
 > Commitment to provide facilities and equipment required for safety
 > Provision of accredited training where a need is identified
 > Documentary evidence that tasks have been identified and assessed for risk of personal injury
 > Written Safe Systems of Work for all tasks involving significant risk
 > Agreed monitoring and auditing systems
 > Provision for staff feedback
 > Provision of archiving documentation

The monitoring of safety in major projects requires:
 > The recording of incidents, injuries, illness, fatigue and near misses
 > Documentation of actions taken as a result of follow-up and accident reporting
 > Assessment of safety attitudes amongst resources

The auditing of safety in major projects requires:
> Checking that the above documentation is in place
> Certifying that training is adequate and accredited
> Assessing stakeholder attitudes
> Checking compliance with legislation and standards

Transparency and Understanding of the Turnaround, Project or Maintenance Vision

Being involved with a team that is, in my opinion, in charge of empowering a major cultural shift I have found the most useful tools are honesty, a firm ethical foundation and transparency regarding the goal that will facilitate good relationships and confidence in our processes and vision.
It also has been my experience that any change that effects the current status-quo is subject to some anxiety and resistance.
With these things said, many organizations have a good idea of the challenges of Facility Maintenance, Turnarounds and Projects. However sometimes each functional group makes assumptions that we are all in the loop with the who, where, what and when things are being done. This is where developing a process to ensure clear common understanding and being of service. What does this mean… from the functional discipline perspective.
Although the thoughts below apply to Turnaround events it does not take much work to expand to Maintenance and Project environments.

Ensuring a clear and common understanding:

Making sure everyone has been presented with and know where to access the latest versions of the communications plan (stakeholders identified, Organizational Chart, roles & responsibilities, RASCI chart, contact list, distribution matrix) and how to use it.

Ensuring stakeholders whose scope was not included in the TA understand they will not receive scope from the TA group - example: Software Upgrade Project

Making sure all functional managers have the latest copy of the schedule
Ensuring managers receive Status Reports

Making sure stakeholders understand who is responsible for providing Schedule Activity updates, expected format, when and frequency.

Ensuring all divisions are required at the daily TA Progress Meeting to communicate support, critical tasks, forecasted high risk activities, safety events as outlined within the agenda.Being of Service:

Utilizing the Schedule and Daily TA Meeting to ensure stakeholders know about information that will affect them. Utilizing the Daily TA Meeting to provide a platform for the management of potential roadblocks Utilizing the Daily TA Meeting to review risks and develop options

Essentially from a high level effective changes require buy-in. Stakeholders need to be informed, introduced gradually into new changes, have some involvement and control. This requires a concerted effort from the team introducing the change.

There are considerable impacts of poor communication processes including, misunderstandings, assumptions and missed opportunities. The resulting consequences are realized through loss of productivity, rework and confidence. These factors precipitate when the Turnaround, Project or Maintenance function encounters budget, time, scope and quality losses.

Planners - An Industry Challenge

To really benefit from this post please read "Planners struggle... closing the gap" which suggests there does not seem to be a clear, global template that would encompass the role and expectations of a Planner.

What we do well:

Add a preceding attribute as a qualifier. Subsequently the Turnaround, Maintenance or Project Planner role is established, then breaking down to a granular level identifying discipline or craft.

Establishing a high level list of responsibilities including:
Planning of execution - Work Orders (Paper Planning)
  >  review and management of assigned Work Orders
  >  verification of scope
  >  decomposition of Work Order scope to the craft and/ or equipment level
  >  estimate duration to perform each activity
  >  estimate number of resources and equipment to perform each activity
  >  list of tools required to perform each activity
  >  Bill of Materials
  >  order materials
  >  development of Safety Plan
  >  list of possible constraints or anticipated challenges

Work Package Creation
  > creating work package file system
  > research and composition of detailed work packages
  > auditing of work package elements to ensure all pertinent information is contained within the package
  > ensuring work packages are delivered to the responsible craft lead

Where we have some challenges:
Once the role has been determined to the discipline level it is essential to qualify the level of proficiency required to meet the goals and objectives outlined within the resource responsibility and RASCI matrix's. It is also important that the Planner communicates to the right people when decomposing work orders, ordering materials, updating planning progress, troubleshooting challenges and resolving issues. By developing and sharing of a communication matrix clear direction is established regarding who to talk to about what. (These documents are essential when understanding the guidelines in which Planners operate)

Establishing level of competency to perform activities of the Planner
  >  sense of ownership (participation) - contributing, reviewing and communication
  >  trade level coupled with experience
  >  facility maintenance, project, turnaround and operations experience
  >  establishing duration estimating expectations - level of accuracy
  >  computer skills in general
    >  proficiency with CMMS software
    >  proficiency with MS Office suite
 >  scheduling experience - even from a fundamental support aspect
 >  experience managing and reporting to Planning backlog
 >  understanding of resource, time and cost budgets

The role of the Planner is essential when developing the scope of any turnaround, project or maintenance schedule. The Planner is expected to be a subject matter expert, understand stakeholder expectations, estimator, materials expert and communications leader. Essentially an authority on all aspects of deliverable execution. It is also critical that the Planner instills confidence within the organization. Unfortunately, to date, there is no accredited institute with an authorized, concrete curriculum to enable a Planner Competency.

Maybe later, until then...

Continuous Improvement - Do you mean business?

For those who know me understand I am part idealist and part pragmatist. The idealist would say, the standards we develop and agree upon, once established should be designed to never be changed. Thereby negating the need to update or change the products or services we use. The pragmatist would say, standards will always need refining and challenges are to be expected.
At some level we all struggle with balancing our environmental needs to, essentially, maintain the status quo. However, every once in a while a new technology or process allows us to re-imagine and revolutionize the way we work. This is especially appealing when it resonates with both the idealist and pragmatic parts of us. When a person or company is able to provide goods and services that truly delivers a safety, cost and time savings that is sustainable, then we have achieved true value. That means creating real value; not simply selling blanket statements and illusive promises. The value happens when we deliver on the objective of customer satisfaction.

With this said there is a new kid in town with the name of "PERI" Scaffold. As far as I can see they have redesigned and re-engineered the Scaffold as we know it today. Believe it or not, they are also the largest and most distinctive Scaffold company in the world. Being in the Oil & Gas business for most of my adult life, I am, somewhat embarrassed to tell you I have not heard of this company. I wonder if I have been living in a vacuum watching B&W TV while my neighbours are enjoying 3D LCD's. The worst part is they are, ultimately, paying less and getting more value.

Although it may seem that I am endorsing a company, this is not my sole intent. However, I do believe the tools we use enable us to realize the continuous improvement initiatives we all endorse.

Ask yourself the question..."Are your Shoes Tied?

CMMS Software Upgrades - Know your requirements before....

This post builds on the previous post "CMMS Upgrade - Lessons Learned"  that highlights some of my experience with upgrading CMMS system versions. Software implementation and/or updates should be treated like a hard asset project. Exercising the same framework and best practices utilized in past projects will provide the project team with familiar communication processes and methodologies to enable success. Typically software system updates are CAPEX funded so....you have a defined scope, a list of deliverables and desired output of the product service and result. Often the project team will consist of, and will be relying on, consultants acting as subject matter experts. There often are certain expectations when working with third party groups. Acknowledging this, documentation of deliverables, associated risks and assumptions is key to managing the project. This may be an iterative process which most likely will adopt a rolling wave planning methodology. The benefits of this type of plan will enable the Project Manager to identify and remove, or at least manage risks that could impact future events. If one deliverable is not achieved, the project could be seen as a failure, which could impact confidence and the ability to have future projects approved. Although the thought of losing short term confidence is a major influence in managing a project, the ultimate impact is realized for an extended term as the effects of the missed deliverable(s) are realized. Understanding and documenting the potential impacts of deficiencies within the defined deliverables will empower the steering committee to make satisfactory decisions.
In closing...define the desired outputs and input the hold points necessary to meet all deliverables.

Customizing Column Attribute Properties in P6

Quite often I have found that the out of the box or one size fits all applications are good for a short time. As your team evolves and the expectations mature, some modifications to existing software's are required to increase productivity. Although I have found this to be true with most teams and software relationships today I will focus on on interesting approach to tailoring columns in Primavera P6. Tailoring columns as well as creating user defined customization of attribute properties is quite easy. The caveat is, your security profile must be enable to allow access to functionality. With this said, open the column page by selecting the column icon; from here hold Alt key while pressing 012 for backstage access. From hear you have the freedom to manipulate and tailor for your needs. Sound simple, and it is, just give it a try. However, in closing it is important to track all of your changes and update your configuration management plan if you have one.